Holiday Shoppers Expect Fewer Discounts in 2025

The Wake-Up Call: Holiday shoppers are heading into peak season caught in an economic vice grip. According to a Gartner Consumer Community survey of 367 U.S. consumers, conducted in August 2025, 40% of shoppers expect fewer discounts than last year, whilst 75% cite higher prices as a reason they expect to spend more on holiday gifts. This one-two punch of reduced savings opportunities and inflationary pressure creates an unprecedented challenge for consumers—and forces a fundamental rethink of retail marketing strategies.

The Consumer Community survey reveals a marketplace caught between competing pressures: shoppers bracing for higher prices whilst merchants face margin squeezes that limit their ability to offer traditional discounts that consumers have come to expect during holiday season. 

The numbers paint a stark picture of consumer pressure. 69% of shoppers expect U.S. trade policies to make their holiday shopping more expensive, introducing macroeconomic concerns into what was once purely a retail equation.

“Consumers are anticipating higher prices, supply chain disruptions and fewer discounts from retailers this holiday season,” said Brad Jashinsky, Director Analyst in the Gartner Marketing practice. “Brands must emphasise value, deals and competitive pricing throughout the season to address consumer price sensitivity and expectations of fewer discounts.”

This economic squeeze creates immediate implications for affiliate marketers who have built strategies around discount-driven campaigns. The marketplace now splits between consumers reluctantly spending more due to inflation and others pulling back entirely—demanding more nuanced targeting and messaging approaches than broad promotional campaigns can deliver.

Consumer Spending Under Pressure—Where the Money Goes

The economic squeeze coincides with a dramatic shift in where consumers choose to shop. Consumer preference for brand-specific websites has collapsed from 61% in 2023 to just 40% in 2025, whilst multibrand retail channels gain dominance. For marketers and affiliate programs that have relied on driving traffic to brand websites, this migration demands a strategic recalibration towards marketplace partnerships.

The numbers underscore this challenge: 58% of holiday shoppers plan to shop via retail sites compared to only 30% using brand sites directly. Mobile apps show an even starker divide—43% of consumers plan to use retail apps whilst just 12% will use brand apps. For affiliate marketers, this represents a fundamental shift in commission opportunity, as marketplace programs like Amazon's recent expansion through CJ offer different payout structures and tracking capabilities than traditional brand partnerships.

Social media shopping, once heralded as the future of affiliate marketing, continues its decline with only 7% of consumers planning social platform purchases—a 3% drop from 2024. This trend contradicts the recent TikTok Shop success stories and suggests that whilst viral moments drive awareness, conversion intent remains concentrated in traditional retail channels.

Economic Pressure Creates Two-Track Consumer Market

The Gartner data reveals a consumer base split by economic realities. With 75% of holiday shoppers citing higher prices as a reason they expect to spend more, whilst 25% expect to spend less overall, affiliate programs must develop dual-track approaches that capture both segments effectively.

This division creates distinct opportunities for affiliates who can segment their audience appropriately. Programs targeting consumers forced into higher spending need content that emphasises value preservation, quality investments, and long-term cost benefits. Meanwhile, those reaching price-conscious shoppers pulling back from the market require messaging focused on essential purchases, budget maximisation, and strategic gift-giving.

The trade policy concern affecting 69% of shoppers suggests that affiliates promoting domestic or locally-sourced products may find increased conversion opportunities, particularly if they can effectively communicate supply chain advantages and pricing stability.

Cost Pressure Intensifies Affiliate Competition

The reduced discount expectation creates a double challenge for affiliate programs. First, advertisers face margin pressure that could lead to commission cuts or more restrictive partner requirements. Second, the competitive landscape intensifies as affiliates chase fewer high-converting deals. Historical data shows that average advertised discounts typically jump from 38% to 43% between September and December, creating seasonal concentration that demands strategic positioning.

This discount compression creates a winner-takes-all scenario reminiscent of the keyword bidding wars between Temu and Shein that drove up advertising costs across the board. Affiliate programs must now consider whether to compete for these peak discount moments or develop alternative value propositions that resonate year-round.

Jashinsky's emphasis on brands needing to “emphasise value, deals and competitive pricing throughout the season” points towards a more sophisticated affiliate approach that moves beyond broad discount codes towards comprehensive value communication and strategic positioning.

Early Season Activation Becomes Critical Survival Strategy

With 25% of holiday shoppers having purchased gifts during summer seasonal sales, the traditional holiday marketing timeline has collapsed. This compression demands that affiliate programs prepare for peak season months earlier than previously required, with July and August now representing critical planning phases rather than dormant periods.

The shift towards early activation also changes content strategy requirements. Affiliates need to develop evergreen holiday content that maintains relevance across extended seasonal windows, rather than creating time-bound promotional materials for specific shopping events.

The Takeaways…

• Programs must evaluate whether traditional percentage-based models remain viable when discounts decrease but prices increase. Fixed-fee partnerships or hybrid structures might better align with reduced margin environments whilst maintaining affiliate motivation during inflationary periods.
• The move towards multibrand retail channels demands stronger relationships with comparison sites, deal aggregators, and marketplace-focused affiliates rather than exclusive reliance on brand loyalists and coupon sites.
• With consumers expecting to pay more whilst receiving fewer discounts, affiliate content must shift from price-focused messaging to comprehensive value demonstration, quality emphasis, and total cost of ownership education.

The holiday spending squeeze represents more than a temporary economy adjustment—it signals a forced adaptation to value-focused marketing in an inflationary environment. Affiliate programs that quickly pivot to help consumers navigate higher prices whilst embracing the marketplace migration will maintain relevance, whilst those clinging to discount-dependent models risk losing partners and consumers alike in an economically constrained market.

Ready to diversify your affiliate marketing strategy? Explore our training programs and stay updated with the latest trends through our industry insights.