Adobe Forecasts Affiliate and Creator Gains in $275B Holiday Season

Adobe expects US consumers to spend $275.1 billion online during November and December 2026, with affiliates, creators, and social media forecast to gain a larger share of retail revenue.

Its new holiday outlook also predicts a 130% increase in traffic from AI services. The figures point to a more varied product-discovery journey, although Adobe has not published the underlying channel shares or partner-level attribution data.

Key Takeaways: Affiliate and AI Discovery Gain Ground

• US online holiday spending is forecast to reach $275.1 billion, up 6.7% year over year.
• Cyber Week is expected to generate $47.5 billion, representing 17.3% of the season’s online spending.
• Affiliates and partners are forecast to increase their share of retail revenue by 12%.
• Social media’s revenue share is expected to rise by 17%, compared with 4% for paid search.
• Cashback and rewards partners account for a projected 36% of affiliate traffic.
• Influencers and creators follow with a 22% share of affiliate traffic.
• Traffic from AI-powered services to retail websites is forecast to rise 130% year over year.
• The figures are forecasts and should not be treated as guaranteed channel or program results.

Affiliates and Social Media Are Expected to Gain Revenue Share

The official Adobe holiday forecast is based on more than one trillion visits to US retail websites, 100 million products, and 18 retail categories.

Adobe expects affiliates and partners, a category that includes social influencers, to increase their share of online retail revenue by 12% during the holiday season. Social media is forecast to record a 17% increase, while paid search is expected to gain 4%.

These figures describe forecast growth in each channel’s revenue share. Adobe does not provide the underlying baseline percentages, so they do not mean affiliates will generate 12% of all holiday revenue or social media will generate 17%.

Adobe also breaks down expected affiliate traffic by partner type:

The figures concern traffic rather than revenue, conversions, or commissions. However, they suggest that value-led partners and creator content may both play substantial roles during peak shopping periods.

The forecast follows separate research indicating that US affiliate marketing spending will exceed $14 billion in 2026, with creator partnerships among the factors supporting channel growth.

AI Retail Traffic Is Forecast to Rise 130%

Adobe expects traffic from AI-powered chat and browser services to US retail websites to increase 130% year over year during the holiday season.

The company defines this traffic as shoppers clicking a link from an AI service and reaching a retailer. It expects the largest increase on Thanksgiving, at 159%, followed by Black Friday at 95% and Cyber Monday at 88%.

Adobe has not disclosed the current share of retail visits generated by AI services. A 130% increase could therefore represent rapid growth from a comparatively small base rather than AI becoming a dominant acquisition channel.

A July 2026 Adobe survey of 5,000 US consumers found that 77% of respondents who had used AI for shopping said it made them more confident in a purchase. Sixty-nine percent said they were less likely to return an item they bought.

These are self-reported responses rather than observed conversion or return data. However, they support the idea that AI tools are being used for comparison and purchase validation before a shopper reaches a retailer.

Affiverse previously examined this shift during Prime Day, when AI-assisted deal discovery became a measurable source of high-intent retail traffic.

Adobe’s Holiday Spending Forecast at a Glance

Black Friday is expected to grow faster than Cyber Monday, even though Cyber Monday will remain the larger online shopping day.

Mobile devices are forecast to generate 57.4% of spending across the season. They are also expected to account for 82% of purchases made through Buy Now Pay Later services.

What Affiliate Teams Should Prepare For

Adobe’s figures suggest that holiday purchases will be influenced across several different environments before the final transaction is recorded.

Cashback and rewards partners may capture shoppers searching for the strongest price, while creators can support discovery and product evaluation. AI services may help users compare those recommendations before directing them to a retailer.

Affiliate teams should therefore review product feeds, promotional terms, creator codes, mobile landing pages and channel reporting before peak demand arrives. Analytics should also distinguish identifiable AI referrals from conventional organic, social and affiliate traffic.

The 12%, 17% and 130% growth figures remain forecasts. Their value is in showing where Adobe expects shopping behavior to move, not in setting performance targets for individual affiliate programs.