AI-Driven Shopping Surge: Why Affiliate Programs Need to Prepare for 30 Percent Growth by 2027

Bold predictions of structural shifts in digital commerce as AI search, social platforms and creator channels converge to expand consumer spending beyond historical patterns –  have been released recently by Nomix Group.

Western markets face a potential 30 percent expansion in digital shopping spend by late 2027, according to Colin Jeavons, founder and chairman of Nomix Group, who delivered the forecast during an appearance at the AI Marketers Guild's speaker series. 

The projection specifically targets digital channels rather than overall retail, with Jeavons characterising his estimate as conservative given the proliferation of purchase surfaces across AI interfaces, creator feeds and mobile environments.

“People will discover more, see more, get more opportunities to buy and ultimately will spend more than they have in prior cycles,” Jeavons stated during the session. “In Western markets, we believe digital shopping alone will grow by at least 30 percent from 2025 to 2027. That growth will be fueled by new discovery surfaces and impulse-friendly environments like TikTok Shop, Instagram and emerging AI shopping interfaces. Consumers aren't just reallocating spend. They're expanding it.”

The forecast encompasses the United States, Western Europe and Japan, with the US representing roughly half of projected spending increases. Jeavons emphasised that while traditional retail faces pressure from shifting consumer behaviour and reduced tourist-driven luxury spending in markets like Japan and the UK, digital channels show accelerating momentum.

Technological forces reshaping purchase behaviour

The anticipated expansion stems from converging shifts that fundamentally alter consumer discovery and transaction patterns. AI-powered answer engines and shopping agents have collapsed traditional research phases, narrowing consideration sets while accelerating decision-making at the earliest point of intent. These tools intercept purchase interest before consumers reach conventional search results, potentially disrupting attribution models affiliate programs have relied upon.

Social commerce platforms including TikTok Shop and Instagram now function as what Jeavons described as digital equivalents of shopping malls, driving high-volume impulse purchasing at unprecedented scale. “If the mall was the traditional driver of impulse buys, TikTok Shop is now the mall,” Jeavons noted. 

The discovery-based shopping model, these platforms enable – places products directly into consumer feeds during content consumption, eliminating steps between awareness and transaction. Meanwhile, AI-driven video and content generation allows brands and publishers to test multiple creative formats and targeting strategies at near-zero marginal cost.

 “When you combine discovery everywhere with low-friction buying paths, you expand the pie,” Jeavons said. “This isn't a five percent uplift on top of expected growth. This is a structural shift in how people shop.”

Winners and losers in the projected expansion

Winners and losers in the projected expansion. Not all affiliate programs will benefit equally. Jeavons cautioned that optimisation for search or siloed channel strategies may prove insufficient as consumer behaviour fragments. “If you're optimised for blue-link search or siloed channels, AI will feel like a headwind,” he warned. “If you're designed for answer engines, creator feeds, app environments, and agentic shopping, you can ride the growth instead of losing ground.”

Zero-click search behaviours and AI-generated summaries continue disrupting established traffic patterns, forcing program managers to reconsider content strategies and partner recruitment approaches. Programs that have successfully adapted to AI-driven discovery mechanisms may find themselves better positioned to capture share of projected spending increases.

Nomix Group has also published a useful checklist on their site which can be accessed here: Designing for the 30%: A Practical Checklist for Brands and Publishers – providing implementation guidance for teams preparing for these shifts. The holding company operates five specialised divisions spanning mobile applications, user-generated content, programmatic advertising, and creator commerce infrastructure, collectively driving more than $2.5 billion in verified product sales during 2024.

Strategic implications for affiliate program management

The 30 percent projection represents fundamental expansion in discretionary spending allocated to digital channels as purchase and search or research platforms multiply, rather than incremental growth layered onto existing channels. Affiliate programs managing partner recruitment, creative requirements and commission structures around previous consumer behaviour patterns will now face potential disruption requiring a re-think on how to distribute funds to gain momentum in a fragmented space.

Affiliate Program managers should evaluate partner portfolios for representation across emerging discovery surfaces, particularly creator-driven commerce channels and AI-optimised content environments. Commission structures may require adjustment to reflect different conversion characteristics across platforms where purchase consideration compresses dramatically compared to traditional search-driven journeys.

Attribution methodology becomes increasingly critical as consumers interact with affiliate content across multiple interfaces before completing transactions. Programs relying heavily on last-click models may systematically undervalue partners contributing to earlier discovery phases that AI interfaces and social commerce platforms now dominate.

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